A Look at the Week in Political Betting, Augur News, and More
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Political Betting Roundup
After hearings on the alleged Trump/Ukraine quid-pro-quo corruption scandal, betting markets believe that impeachment is an inevitable conclusion, with ‘YES’ in PredictIt’s 1st term impeachment market climbing as high as .90/share. This is an interesting figure at this stage.
If one believes that the market is underpricing this as an inevitability, an ~11% return (before PredictIt fees of 10% on profits and 5% of total withdrawal) can be had. Likewise, if one believes that there is an asymmetric upside to the probability of Trump not being impeached in year 1, they’d stand to earn 9x their investment, a sharp rise from the 4x opportunity when impeachment was an .80/share proposition.
Despite the market for whether President Trump is impeached in his first term having such short odds, there is still no consensus on how. The market for whether DJT is impeached in 2019 made new highs this week, mirroring the general first term impeachment, and climbed ~50% to .67/share. Congress has indicated that they intend to bring articles of impeachment in the coming week, however, Trump has until a 5pm EST deadline today to decide whether to mount a defense.
Additionally, the number of articles of impeachment is contentious in the markets. The favorites in the market for number of articles to be passed by 3/31/2020 are two at .32/share and three at .40/share. Amidst all of the trader confidence around impeachment, the odds of a senate conviction of Trump continue trending lower. Those odds now sit at just .13/share, up from a high of .23/share in October, that the Senate would convict Trump on an article.
As a reminder, come Q1 2020, Augur will be the only platform for political betting with no limits, the lowest fees, and unbeatable odds.
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