Augur Weekly - Impeachment Imminent According to Markets
A Look at the Week in Political Betting, Augur News, and More
| 11 hr | 1 |
Augur Weekly posts are public. If someone you know might like it, feel free to share!
Political Betting Roundup
After hearings on the alleged Trump/Ukraine quid-pro-quo corruption scandal, betting markets believe that impeachment is an inevitable conclusion, with ‘YES’ in PredictIt’s 1st term impeachment market climbing as high as .90/share. This is an interesting figure at this stage.
If one believes that the market is underpricing this as an inevitability, an ~11% return (before PredictIt fees of 10% on profits and 5% of total withdrawal) can be had. Likewise, if one believes that there is an asymmetric upside to the probability of Trump not being impeached in year 1, they’d stand to earn 9x their investment, a sharp rise from the 4x opportunity when impeachment was an .80/share proposition.
Despite the market for whether President Trump is impeached in his first term having such short odds, there is still no consensus on how. The market for whether DJT is impeached in 2019 made new highs this week, mirroring the general first term impeachment, and climbed ~50% to .67/share. Congress has indicated that they intend to bring articles of impeachment in the coming week, however, Trump has until a 5pm EST deadline today to decide whether to mount a defense.
Additionally, the number of articles of impeachment is contentious in the markets. The favorites in the market for number of articles to be passed by 3/31/2020 are two at .32/share and three at .40/share. Amidst all of the trader confidence around impeachment, the odds of a senate conviction of Trump continue trending lower. Those odds now sit at just .13/share, up from a high of .23/share in October, that the Senate would convict Trump on an article.
More Charts:
As a reminder, come Q1 2020, Augur will be the only platform for political betting with no limits, the lowest fees, and unbeatable odds.
To receive updates on Augur including this newsletter, sign up below:
Further Reading:
Augur Edge - Ben Davidow
Intrade Founder Takes Another Shot at Sports Betting Exchange - Bloomberg
Andrew Yang is good at branding - Political Alert Engine
Kamala Harris’ Decline Began When Tulsi Gabbard Blasted Her in July Debate - Summit News
More on Augur
Augur v2: A Tour of the Prediction Protocol’s First Major Upgrade
The Ultimate Guide to Decentralized Prediction Markets
Announcing the Augur v1 Cutoff
The Forecast Foundation has no role in the operation of markets, trades or actions created or performed on the Augur protocol, nor does it have the ability to censor, restrict, control, modify, change, revoke, terminate or make any changes to markets created on the Augur protocol. The Forecast Foundation has no more control over the Augur protocol than anyone else using Ethereum.
Thus, we do not seek to advise others on how to use the protocol. We encourage those in the community that are well educated on Augur to pay it forward and share their ideas for best practices, tips, fixes, etc with the larger community via Twitter, Discord, Reddit, Github, and other community channels. For more information regarding the role of the Forecast Foundation, check out the FAQ.
Cheers,
The Forecast Foundation OU
| 1 |