Augur Weekly - 4 Ways to Trade the Democratic Nomination Race
A Look at the Week in Political Betting, Augur News, and More
| Augur | Jan 17 |
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Election Betting Roundup
Election season is upon us, and political prediction markets are heating up. Besides the popularity of these markets increasing in an election year, the number of venues to trade them (PredictIt, Betfair, Augur v2 in Q1) is increasing as well.
With the incumbent, President Trump, hailing from the GOP, this early election season brings the Democratic nomination into focus. There are a number of ways to get exposure to the overall race or specific pieces of it.
1) DemNom Market 🗳️
The DemNom market is the conference finals of politics; and with no clear-cut leader heading into Primary season, this race is shaping up to be contentious. Sanders and Biden are the current frontrunners, trading for a combined 72c/share on PredictIt, but several viable candidates linger behind them: Warren at 10c/share, Bloomberg at 13c/share, Buttigieg at 8c/share, and Yang at 5c/share.
2) 2020 Presidential Market 🇺🇸
Whoa there, cowboy, I thought we were talking DemNom here. Well, it turns out that there will be some interesting hedging and arbitrage opportunities between the DemNom prices and the prices for the 2020 General Election. These moves can be a bit risky, so be sure to consider all of the implications of such a strategy. The main factor to anticipate is how individual nominees’ respective victories might affect the odds of beating DJT.
3) Debate Markets 🗣️
To date, the debates have been rather cordial. As the stakes increase, expect to see more spirited and contentious statements and perhaps a good, old-fashioned back and forth. In Tuesday’s debate, we saw the winds of congeniality begin to change between Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren:
As candidates start to feel their backs against the wall, look out for more sparks. And with more sparks comes a slew of potential debate prop markets. Given the propensity for candidates to reach for social media-digestible soundbites, this should be a fun debate season.
4) Individual Primaries/Caucuses ☑️
The first contest, Iowa’s Democratic Caucus, is fast approaching and you can make your wagers on Guesser, an app built with Augur.
Iowa’s Caucus on February 3rd, and is followed by New Hampshire’s Primary on February 11th, Nevada’s Caucus on February 22nd, and South Carolina’s Primary on February 29th. These early races represent the calm before the storm.
March 3rd brings Super Tuesday, where 14 state contests that day will kick off a concentrated group of state races between then and June.
Coming soon in Q1 2020, Augur will be the only platform for political betting with no limits, the lowest fees, and unbeatable odds.
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Further Reading:
Wanna Bet? The Market Has a View on the 2020 Election - Wall Street Journal
My 2020 Democratic primary predictions pass the smell test - Unexpected Values
Around the Ecosystem
20 Augur Predictions for 2020. Ben Davidow, friend of the Forecast Foundation and writer of The Augur Edge, gives his list of predictions for Augur in 2020. Ben has his finger on the pulse and provides some unique insights into his thought process behind how Augur might become adopted.
InTrade, the first prediction market with 50m+ users and $200m+ wagers. Common Market details the rise and fall of Intrade, a general-purpose prediction market platform that existed between 1999-2012; as well as today’s heir apparent.
Introducing Harber.io- combining prediction markets and NFTs for the first time. Andrew, ‘McPlums,’ Stanger announced his project, Harber.io, utilizing Augur contracts. In his own words:
Harber.io is a unique gambling platform, built on top of Augur. There is one NFT per team/outcome. To rent a token, users set a daily rental price and deposit DAI to fund the rent. Token ownership changes via modified Harberger tax rules.
Check out the video on how to use Harbor.io below:
More on Augur
Augur v2: A Tour of the Prediction Protocol’s First Major Upgrade
The Ultimate Guide to Decentralized Prediction Markets
Announcing the Augur v1 Cutoff
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