Augur Weekly - 3 Political Markets with Explosive Upside in 2020
Augur Weekly - 3 Political Markets with Explosive Upside in 2020
A Look at the Week in Political Betting, Augur News, and More
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Holy cow. There won’t be a dull week in political betting for the next 12 months, will there?
Yesterday, the UK saw a Conservative majority and Boris Johnson take the Parliament and Prime Minister elections, respectively. The Guesser-created market for UK majority in Parliament became one of the largest in Augur’s early history, with over $200k in open interest.
This result had implications for other contests, as the ‘Brexit by Feb 1st’ market on PredictIt made a strong move upwards upon the results. The market now prices the chance at .81/share, up from .56/share earlier in the week.
Now, let’s take a look at some markets that are sure to have explosive upside in 2020.
One thing is for sure, the most profitable opportunities will be on platforms like Augur, where there are no limits on the amount bet in markets and the breadth of markets available.
1) DemNom.
Look, maybe we’re biased, but having covered the volatility in this market over the past few months, it’s not hard to see that there will be some serious opportunities to profit off of the rolling winds of sentiment for this cycle’s cast of characters.
So many questions remain. Will the establishment favorite, Biden, or fellow moderate, Pete Buttigieg, finally take the reins from here? Or will one of the progressive challengers; Sanders and Warren; garner the momentum necessary to capture the nomination?
Will overbought longshots with name recognition, like Clinton and Bloomberg, continue to create ample opportunity for profitable shorts?
And then there’s Yang. I mean, betting against Andrew Yang is essentially free money.
Any way you slice it, the best odds among any candidate are substantially long, with the favorite offering a near 300% return on a correct prediction.
Betting against Andrew Yang is essentially free money
2) Impeachment
In recent impeachment news, the House Judiciary Committee voted to advance two articles of impeachment accusing President Trump of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. DJT’s price of a first-term impeachment now stands at .93/share and the odds of it occurring in 2019 are similarly high, at .86/share.
Meanwhile, his odds of a senate conviction on the same charges continue to trend remarkably low. At fresh lows of .10/share, there is quite the upside for those who believe that there is more than a minuscule chance that a GOP-controlled Senate finds Trump guilty.
3) 2020 U.S. Presidential Election
Like the DemNom market, the Democratic nominee stands to see their odds in this market increase 2 or 3-fold upon their selection. What’s more, if one thinks the Democratic nominee will go on to win the election, they stand to make at least 4:1 (and as high as 10:1 for some popular candidates). Even at the very shortest odds amongst potential outcomes, betting on a Trump re-election would still net one greater than a 100% return upon victory.
The potential amount wagered on this contest is hard to fathom. As Augur contributor Ryan Berckmans puts it:
Looking at the precedents from previous elections paints an even grander picture. With Betfair serving primarily overseas customers and PredictIt’s trading limits, it’s not hard to see how Augur could capture much of the interest for this sure-to-be climactic election:
As a reminder, come Q1 2020, Augur will be the only platform for political betting with no limits, the lowest fees, and unbeatable odds.
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Further Reading:
Augur Edge - Ben Davidow
Want Better Forecasting? Silence the Noise - Wharton/Penn
More on Augur
Augur v2: A Tour of the Prediction Protocol’s First Major Upgrade
The Ultimate Guide to Decentralized Prediction Markets
Announcing the Augur v1 Cutoff
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