Augur Weekly - 4 Ways to Trade the Democratic Nomination Race

A Look at the Week in Political Betting, Augur News, and More

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Election Betting Roundup

Election season is upon us, and political prediction markets are heating up. Besides the popularity of these markets increasing in an election year, the number of venues to trade them (PredictIt, Betfair, Augur v2 in Q1) is increasing as well.

With the incumbent, President Trump, hailing from the GOP, this early election season brings the Democratic nomination into focus. There are a number of ways to get exposure to the overall race or specific pieces of it.

1) DemNom Market 🗳️

The DemNom market is the conference finals of politics; and with no clear-cut leader heading into Primary season, this race is shaping up to be contentious. Sanders and Biden are the current frontrunners, trading for a combined 72c/share on PredictIt, but several viable candidates linger behind them: Warren at 10c/share, Bloomberg at 13c/share, Buttigieg at 8c/share, and Yang at 5c/share.


2) 2020 Presidential Market 🇺🇸

Whoa there, cowboy, I thought we were talking DemNom here. Well, it turns out that there will be some interesting hedging and arbitrage opportunities between the DemNom prices and the prices for the 2020 General Election. These moves can be a bit risky, so be sure to consider all of the implications of such a strategy. The main factor to anticipate is how individual nominees’ respective victories might affect the odds of beating DJT.

3) Debate Markets 🗣️

To date, the debates have been rather cordial. As the stakes increase, expect to see more spirited and contentious statements and perhaps a good, old-fashioned back and forth. In Tuesday’s debate, we saw the winds of congeniality begin to change between Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren:

As candidates start to feel their backs against the wall, look out for more sparks. And with more sparks comes a slew of potential debate prop markets. Given the propensity for candidates to reach for social media-digestible soundbites, this should be a fun debate season.

4) Individual Primaries/Caucuses ☑️

The first contest, Iowa’s Democratic Caucus, is fast approaching and you can make your wagers on Guesser, an app built with Augur.

Iowa’s Caucus on February 3rd, and is followed by New Hampshire’s Primary on February 11th, Nevada’s Caucus on February 22nd, and South Carolina’s Primary on February 29th. These early races represent the calm before the storm.

March 3rd brings Super Tuesday, where 14 state contests that day will kick off a concentrated group of state races between then and June.

Coming soon in Q1 2020, Augur will be the only platform for political betting with no limits, the lowest fees, and unbeatable odds.

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Further Reading:

Wanna Bet? The Market Has a View on the 2020 Election - Wall Street Journal

My 2020 Democratic primary predictions pass the smell test - Unexpected Values

Star Spangled Gamblers

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