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Political Betting Roundup
More impeachment testimonies and a fifth Democratic debate shared center stage in another big week for political markets. After the latest hearings into President Trump’s alleged leveraging of $400m in promised military aid to Ukraine in exchange for a public announcement of an investigation into Hunter Biden, impeachment markets have maintained short odds (.80/share).
Eight new testimonies from diplomats with knowledge of the call to Ukrainian President Zelensky were made to members of Congress this week. No single soundbite or testimony had a remarkable impact on the odds. As is, the markets predict that the House of Representatives will indeed move forward with articles of impeachment; however, the odds of Trump being convicted in the GOP-controlled Senate and removed from office are even lower (0.15/share) than him not being impeached. As detailed before on Augur Weekly, contrarian bets on either of these markets could earn 4-6x their money, if correct.
Meanwhile, the fifth Democratic Debate stole some of the thunder from the impeachment hearings. Elizabeth Warren just cannot catch a break, seeing her odds of securing the nomination (currently .25/share) reach their lowest point since August.
On the flip side, Joe Biden initially showed signs of life this week, briefly pulling even with Warren for the first time since August’s decoupling. However, this ascent was short-lived, as an uninspired debate performance sent his odds tumbling back.
This brings us to Mayor Pete. Buttigieg built on the momentum he’s been garnering through October and November with a debate performance lauded by many as strong (even if he sounds curiously similar to Tyrell Wellick).
Now, he’s surpassed Biden for the second-best odds of winning the nomination (0.23/share). Biden isn’t the only one Buttigieg has in his sights, as he’s only .02 away from the frontrunner Warren. In fact, the three leading Democratic hopefuls in terms of betting odds; Biden, Buttigieg, and Warren; currently have only .04 in total separating them.
Elsewhere, volatility in betting markets around a potential meeting between Trump and President Xi Jinping of China in 2019 has continued. The current odds indicate the likelihood of a 2019 meeting; and with it, the likelihood of a trade deal; is low. Currently sitting at .25/share, the odds had reached as low as .18/share this week, despite being .55/share just one week earlier, and as high as .72/share in early November.
As a reminder, come Q1 2020, Augur will be the only platform for political betting with no limits, the lowest fees, and unbeatable odds.
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