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Political Betting Roundup
Would the Democratic Nomination markets mind taking a little breather?
The activity in this market is jarring. As can be seen in the above chart, Elizabeth Warren has finally given back her spot amongst the odds leaderboard. She first overtook former Vice President Joe Biden in August and had enjoyed a fairly wide margin which peaked in October. Since then, a stable rate of decline has brought her back to the pack, with Biden and Pete Buttigieg overtaking her this week.
Currently, there are three candidates within .08 of the leader Biden (.25/share); Buttigieg (.20), Warren (.19), and Bernie Sanders (.17); with recently confirmed candidate Mike Bloomberg bringing up fifth at .12/share. The tweet below shows the change in the top five in betting odds from October 4.
This rapidly developing market is interesting to look at from a few angles. First, is there a meaningful correlation between Warren’s presidential betting odds and broader financial markets?
Warren, who is hawkish on big business, has seen her rise in the betting markets correspond with a pullback in the S&P 500. Her subsequent fall from being a heavy favorite has coincided with a rally in the same index. Noise? Or an indication that the market would not be amenable to a Warren presidency?
Further, one can see how these nomination odds correspond to the favorite in each primary:
Additionally, a factor to consider is how much runway this race has. In December 2015, Trump’s odds of the Republican nomination on Betfair were ~.20/share, trailing Rubio and Cruz at points. We all know how that race ended up resolving.
As a reminder, come Q1 2020, Augur will be the only platform for political betting with no limits, the lowest fees, and unbeatable odds.
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Augur Edge - Ben Davidow
Ok, so who is going to win this thing? - Predicting Politics
Overlapping RCP Markets - DepictIt
Buttigieg and Non-White Voters - Political Alert Engine
Pitfalls of using implied betting market odds to estimate electability - Columbia Statistical Modeling
Is a Trade Deal Imminent - Humble Student of the Markets
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