Augur Weekly - Impeachment, Debate, and How to Double your Money
Augur Weekly - Impeachment, Debate, and How to Double your Money
A Look at the Week in Political Betting, Augur News, and More
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Election Betting Roundup
Tis the season to roll up one’s sleeves, hunker down with one’s favorite political betting blogs, and get ready to profit.
The impeachment saga seems to be ending, or just beginning, depending on how you look at it. Those that bet on the 1st term and 2019 impeachment slept well this week after the House brought and approved two articles of impeachment against President Trump.
With the impeachment being a foregone conclusion, let’s shift to the odds of a Senate conviction. In contrast to the new highs in impeachment markets, conviction markets are still indicating quite the long shot for the removal of the president.
In fact, impeachment and the surrounding drama have seemed to have spurred the support of Trump for re-election. As you can see below, the PredictIt price for shares in his re-election has been steadily rising amidst this process.
If you’ve been following our good friend Ben over at the Augur Edge, he’s been slinging hot predictions right out of the oven. In Tuesday’s Edge, he detailed his inclination to buy shares of Amy Klobuchar in the DemNom and GenElection markets:
I bought Klobuchar YES shares in the Demnom market at ~3 cents and in the General election market at ~2 cents…I don't think she's getting the nomination, but I think she will bounce in coming weeks.
Well, in a matter of days, not weeks, Klobuchar’s odds surged. Following Thursday’s DemDebate in Los Angeles, where she was widely hailed as having a strong performance, her odds of the nomination have reached .08/share (+167%) and the presidency, .04/share (+100%). Great pick Ben, in the spirit of Christmas, we hope you don’t stop gifting us these great tips. If you’re into things like prediction markets and profit, go give Augur Edge a follow!
Moreover, Ben goes into detail about the relative benefits of PredictIt vs Augur. He lays out a whole host of the advantages of Augur, including one that addresses a problem I’ve been seeing often:
On Twitter, you’ll find a graveyard of folk asking for markets that never materialize; whereas on Augur, one can simply make it themselves:
As a reminder, come Q1 2020, Augur will be the only platform for political betting with no limits, the lowest fees, and unbeatable odds.
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Further Reading:
Gaming Out Iowa - Predicting Politics
How History Predicts the 2020 Election - Misha Leybovich
Around the Ecosystem
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The Ultimate Guide to Decentralized Prediction Markets
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