A Look at the Week in Political Betting, Augur News, and More
|Nov 8||Public post|| 2|
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Election Betting Roundup
Well, that was quick. It seems like just yesterday Pete Buttigieg was winning the sentiment of moderate Democrats in a march towards the best odds for the nomination. As you can see in the above chart from Bloomberg’s Michael McDonough, Buttigieg’s PredictIt odds had been picking up steam against the flailing sentiment for fellow moderate Joe Biden and chief progressive opponent, Elizabeth Warren.
Alas, former NY Mayor and businessman Michael Bloomberg, perhaps sensing the viability of his candidacy as a moderate Democrat now more than ever, has filed paperwork to enter the race. What’s emboldened this move? Bloomberg indicated as recently as mid-October that he would consider a run if Biden were to drop out. Now, with Biden’s struggles to regain momentum following the fallout from the Hunter Biden/Ukraine news; coupled with Beto O’Rourke dropping out of the race, and Buttigieg’s relative inexperience; the former Mayor felt now was the time to make his move.
It seems the betting public agrees on his chances. In one day Bloomberg rose from .03 to as high as .13/share, pulling past or even with popular candidates Bernie Sanders and Andrew Yang and pulling down on the prices of Biden, Buttigieg, and Warren. He now sits at .11/share, within .05 of Buttigieg, .09 of Biden, and .19 of favorite, Warren.
Another interesting thing to look at is the comparison between the timing of Bloomberg’s announcement and the betting activity, with his odds beginning to spike ~3h before the story broke. One might think to immediately blame insiders taking a position. However, after deeper inspection, an errant tweet describing Bloomberg’s team gathering signatures in Alabama may have been the culprit. This goes to show, Savvy bettors with the right alerts can gain material advantages in the age of instant reporting.
In other news, betting markets continue to value the potential of another candidate throwing her hat in the ring:
Excuse Nate’s language, but he has somewhat of a point. The limits on PredictIt distort what truly accessible markets might look like. As we move closer to Augur v2’s launch by the day, it might be a good idea to consider the relative advantages for the political sharp in comparison to incumbent platforms.
Elsewhere, despite his odds of impeachment making fresh highs (0.80/share) this week, President Donald Trump’s odds to win the General 2020 Election remain relatively unchanged. In contrast, the slide in the odds of his chief Democratic opponents Warren and Biden persisted.
As a reminder, come Q1 2020, Augur will be the only platform for political betting with no limits, the lowest fees, and unbeatable odds.
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