Augur Weekly - New Hampshire to Nevada

A Look at the Week in Political Betting, Augur News, and More

Augur Weekly posts are public. If someone you know would like this content, share it!


Election Betting Roundup

New Hampshire was significantly less eventful than Iowa. Bernie Sanders won with no controversy.

Maybe that’s okay.

Despite the lack of madness, the contest was somehow even tighter than Iowa. The tightest contest in a New Hampshire Democratic Primary ever.


Despite the close race, from a betting perspective, this one was a bit of a snoozer. Sanders was a favorite at ~75c or better since late January, and the candidates that were expected to give him a run, Warren and Biden, have national campaigns that are fizzling fast.

Prior to the NH primary, the betting markets seemed to have New Hampshire pegged a little closer than the robots.

Twitter avatar for @biancoresearchJim Bianco @biancoresearch
FiveThirtyEight's model gives Sanders a 68% chance to win NH (Tuesday).… The betting market gives him 76%. (chart below) Betting market updates can be found here (screenshot below)… @FiveThirtyEight @NateSilver538 @PredictIt


Up next is Nevada’s contest on Feb 22.

Currently, PredictIt has odds of:

Sanders - 75c
Biden - 15c (!?)
Buttigieg - 11c
Klobuchar - 4c
Steyer - 3c
Warren - 2c

Meanwhile, as the primaries and caucuses begin to take place, it’s interesting to see how the Sanders momentum is affecting the odds for the general election.


It looks as though the betting markets believe DJT is the favorite to re-claim the presidency at this point.

Coming soon in Q1 2020, Augur will be the only exchange for political betting with no limits, the best odds, and the lowest fees!

Join the waitlist!

Further Reading:

More on Augur

Augur v2: A Tour of the Prediction Protocol’s First Major Upgrade

The Ultimate Guide to Decentralized Prediction Markets

Augur Master Plan

Announcing the Augur v1 Cutoff

Augur v2 Transition Update

The Forecast Foundation has no role in the operation of markets, trades or actions created or performed on the Augur protocol, nor does it have the ability to censor, restrict, control, modify, change, revoke, terminate or make any changes to markets created on the Augur protocol. The Forecast Foundation has no more control over the Augur protocol than anyone else using Ethereum.

Thus, we do not seek to advise others on how to use the protocol. We encourage those in the community who are well educated on Augur to pay it forward and share their ideas for best practices, tips, fixes, etc with the larger community via TwitterDiscordRedditGithub, and other community channels. For more information regarding the role of the Forecast Foundation, check out the FAQ.