Augur Weekly - New Hampshire to Nevada

A Look at the Week in Political Betting, Augur News, and More

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Election Betting Roundup

New Hampshire was significantly less eventful than Iowa. Bernie Sanders won with no controversy.

Maybe that’s okay.

Despite the lack of madness, the contest was somehow even tighter than Iowa. The tightest contest in a New Hampshire Democratic Primary ever.

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Despite the close race, from a betting perspective, this one was a bit of a snoozer. Sanders was a favorite at ~75c or better since late January, and the candidates that were expected to give him a run, Warren and Biden, have national campaigns that are fizzling fast.

Prior to the NH primary, the betting markets seemed to have New Hampshire pegged a little closer than the robots.

Jim Bianco @biancoresearch
FiveThirtyEight's model gives Sanders a 68% chance to win NH (Tuesday).
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-f… The betting market gives him 76%. (chart below) Betting market updates can be found here (screenshot below) biancoresearch.com/election-betti… @FiveThirtyEight @NateSilver538 @PredictIt

Nevada

Up next is Nevada’s contest on Feb 22.

Currently, PredictIt has odds of:

Sanders - 75c
Biden - 15c (!?)
Buttigieg - 11c
Klobuchar - 4c
Steyer - 3c
Warren - 2c

Meanwhile, as the primaries and caucuses begin to take place, it’s interesting to see how the Sanders momentum is affecting the odds for the general election.

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It looks as though the betting markets believe DJT is the favorite to re-claim the presidency at this point.


Coming soon in Q1 2020, Augur will be the only exchange for political betting with no limits, the best odds, and the lowest fees!

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Further Reading:


More on Augur

Augur.net

Augur v2: A Tour of the Prediction Protocol’s First Major Upgrade

The Ultimate Guide to Decentralized Prediction Markets

Augur Master Plan

Announcing the Augur v1 Cutoff

Augur v2 Transition Update


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