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Augur Weekly - Warren's Presidential Odds Continue to Slide
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Augur Weekly - Warren's Presidential Odds Continue to Slide

A Look at the Week in Political Betting, Augur News, and More

Augur
Nov 1, 2019
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Augur Weekly - Warren's Presidential Odds Continue to Slide
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Election Betting Roundup

Elizabeth Warren, the current favorite for the 2020 Democratic Nomination, has seen her presidential odds continue along a downward trend, falling this week from $0.28 to $0.22/share, after reaching as high as $0.36 earlier this month. Once neck-and-neck with President Trump, she has seen the gap between them widen to its current mark of $0.19. As recently as October 13th, Warren’s odds had been within $0.04 of DJT’s; whose own have remained steadily in the low $0.40s. What’s more, no Democratic hopeful has made up the slack of the falling confidence in Warren; with other prominent candidates such as Buttigieg, Biden, and Sanders only making smaller moves upwards.

Silver’s Long on an Underdog

Twitter avatar for @NateSilver538Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I'm generally in the Warren-or-Biden-or-maybe-Bernie-or-maybe-maybe-Buttigieg-will-win camp, i.e. I think the field is pretty top-heavy, but Kamala Harris being bid down all the way to a 1.6% chance on prediction markets seems a little nuts.
Election Betting OddsLive betting odds on the 2020 presidential election. Who will win? Trump, Sanders, Harris, Biden, Yang, Buttigieg, Beto?...electionbettingodds.com

October 30th 2019

27 Retweets267 Likes

Nate Silver of 538 seems to believe that there’s some positive EV in long-shot Democratic nominee Kamala Harris after having been bid down so low. Harris was the odds-on favorite for the nomination as recently as July 2019, trading at $0.33/share, but has become an afterthought in the minds of the betting public, cascading down to her current mark in the low single-digits.

Maybe Nate doesn’t expect Harris to win, but he inherently highlights an important point: one can expect a good deal of volatility in these markets at this juncture. The reason her current odds seem “nuts” might be because he’s anchored to the figures he observed while she had early-on captured the public’s sentiment and established herself as a mainstay in the race. At this point in the race, with little solid footing to stand on, candidates of a non-incumbent party are prone to violent odds movement at the whims of sentiment, leaving plenty of room for the savvy bettor to profit.

As a reminder, come Q1 2020, Augur will be the only platform for political betting with no limits, the lowest fees, and unbeatable odds.

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Further Reading:

  • Anxious Democrat Establishment Asks, “Is There Anybody Else?” - NYT

  • All Bets On: How to Read Bookies on a UK election - Reuters

  • You Gotta Hand it to Peter Thiel - Political Alert Engine


Augur Metrics

Pre-Finalization Markets: 286

All-Time Finalized Markets: 2,492

Pre-Finalization Open Interest: $220,130.36 (1,219 ETH)

CASH Contract: $619,933.42 USD (3,418 ETH)


Hot Augur Markets

Provided by: Augur Digest

Will Elizabeth Warren be polling over Bernie Sanders by the end of November?

27 ETH | $4,911 | Dec 1, 2019

2019 NFL Week 9: Will the New England Patriots defeat the Baltimore Ravens?

6 ETH | $1,028 | Nov 5, 2019

Will The UK Leave The European Union Before November 1st 2019?

93 ETH| $16,906 | Nov 3, 2019


Around the Ecosystem

  • Predictions Favor Warren Over Sanders as the Progressive Democratic Candidate

  • Augur App v1.16.2 & v1.16.3


More on Augur

Augur.net

Augur v2: A Tour of the Prediction Protocol’s First Major Upgrade

The Ultimate Guide to Decentralized Prediction Markets

Augur Master Plan

Announcing the Augur v1 Cutoff

Augur v2 Transition Update


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Thus, we do not seek to advise others on how to use the protocol. We encourage those in the community that are well educated on Augur to pay it forward and share their ideas for best practices, tips, fixes, etc with the larger community via Twitter, Discord, Reddit, Github, and other community channels. For more information regarding the role of the Forecast Foundation, check out the FAQ.


Cheers,

The Forecast Foundation OU

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