Augur Weekly - Warren's Presidential Odds Continue to Slide
A Look at the Week in Political Betting, Augur News, and More
Election Betting Roundup
Elizabeth Warren, the current favorite for the 2020 Democratic Nomination, has seen her presidential odds continue along a downward trend, falling this week from $0.28 to $0.22/share, after reaching as high as $0.36 earlier this month. Once neck-and-neck with President Trump, she has seen the gap between them widen to its current mark of $0.19. As recently as October 13th, Warren’s odds had been within $0.04 of DJT’s; whose own have remained steadily in the low $0.40s. What’s more, no Democratic hopeful has made up the slack of the falling confidence in Warren; with other prominent candidates such as Buttigieg, Biden, and Sanders only making smaller moves upwards.
Silver’s Long on an Underdog
Nate Silver of 538 seems to believe that there’s some positive EV in long-shot Democratic nominee Kamala Harris after having been bid down so low. Harris was the odds-on favorite for the nomination as recently as July 2019, trading at $0.33/share, but has become an afterthought in the minds of the betting public, cascading down to her current mark in the low single-digits.
Maybe Nate doesn’t expect Harris to win, but he inherently highlights an important point: one can expect a good deal of volatility in these markets at this juncture. The reason her current odds seem “nuts” might be because he’s anchored to the figures he observed while she had early-on captured the public’s sentiment and established herself as a mainstay in the race. At this point in the race, with little solid footing to stand on, candidates of a non-incumbent party are prone to violent odds movement at the whims of sentiment, leaving plenty of room for the savvy bettor to profit.
As a reminder, come Q1 2020, Augur will be the only platform for political betting with no limits, the lowest fees, and unbeatable odds.
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Further Reading:
Anxious Democrat Establishment Asks, “Is There Anybody Else?” - NYT
You Gotta Hand it to Peter Thiel - Political Alert Engine
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