Augur Weekly - 4 Ways to Trade the Democratic Nomination Race

A Look at the Week in Political Betting, Augur News, and More


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Election Betting Roundup

Election season is upon us, and political prediction markets are heating up. Besides the popularity of these markets increasing in an election year, the number of venues to trade them (PredictIt, Betfair, Augur v2 in Q1) is increasing as well.

With the incumbent, President Trump, hailing from the GOP, this early election season brings the Democratic nomination into focus. There are a number of ways to get exposure to the overall race or specific pieces of it.

1) DemNom Market 🗳️

The DemNom market is the conference finals of politics; and with no clear-cut leader heading into Primary season, this race is shaping up to be contentious. Sanders and Biden are the current frontrunners, trading for a combined 72c/share on PredictIt, but several viable candidates linger behind them: Warren at 10c/share, Bloomberg at 13c/share, Buttigieg at 8c/share, and Yang at 5c/share.

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2) 2020 Presidential Market 🇺🇸

Whoa there, cowboy, I thought we were talking DemNom here. Well, it turns out that there will be some interesting hedging and arbitrage opportunities between the DemNom prices and the prices for the 2020 General Election. These moves can be a bit risky, so be sure to consider all of the implications of such a strategy. The main factor to anticipate is how individual nominees’ respective victories might affect the odds of beating DJT.

3) Debate Markets 🗣️

To date, the debates have been rather cordial. As the stakes increase, expect to see more spirited and contentious statements and perhaps a good, old-fashioned back and forth. In Tuesday’s debate, we saw the winds of congeniality begin to change between Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren:

As candidates start to feel their backs against the wall, look out for more sparks. And with more sparks comes a slew of potential debate prop markets. Given the propensity for candidates to reach for social media-digestible soundbites, this should be a fun debate season.

4) Individual Primaries/Caucuses ☑️

The first contest, Iowa’s Democratic Caucus, is fast approaching and you can make your wagers on Guesser, an app built with Augur.

Iowa’s Caucus on February 3rd, and is followed by New Hampshire’s Primary on February 11th, Nevada’s Caucus on February 22nd, and South Carolina’s Primary on February 29th. These early races represent the calm before the storm.

March 3rd brings Super Tuesday, where 14 state contests that day will kick off a concentrated group of state races between then and June.


Coming soon in Q1 2020, Augur will be the only platform for political betting with no limits, the lowest fees, and unbeatable odds.

To receive updates on Augur in your inbox, including this newsletter, sign up below:

Further Reading:

Wanna Bet? The Market Has a View on the 2020 Election - Wall Street Journal

My 2020 Democratic primary predictions pass the smell test - Unexpected Values

Star Spangled Gamblers


Around the Ecosystem


More on Augur

Augur.net

Augur v2: A Tour of the Prediction Protocol’s First Major Upgrade

The Ultimate Guide to Decentralized Prediction Markets

Augur Master Plan

Announcing the Augur v1 Cutoff

Augur v2 Transition Update


The Forecast Foundation has no role in the operation of markets, trades or actions created or performed on the Augur protocol, nor does it have the ability to censor, restrict, control, modify, change, revoke, terminate or make any changes to markets created on the Augur protocol. The Forecast Foundation has no more control over the Augur protocol than anyone else using Ethereum.

Thus, we do not seek to advise others on how to use the protocol. We encourage those in the community who are well educated on Augur to pay it forward and share their ideas for best practices, tips, fixes, etc with the larger community via TwitterDiscordRedditGithub, and other community channels. For more information regarding the role of the Forecast Foundation, check out the FAQ.

Augur Weekly - How Fox & Tom Steyer Made a Lucky Few 4900% Returns

A Look at the Week in Political Betting, Augur News, and More


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Election Betting Roundup

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Massive swings to the upside (or downside) such as the one in the Steyer | Debate | Qualification market evoke a wide range of emotions. Bystanders experience a wave of excitement, there’s major euphoria for the non-consensus and right, and startling disappointment for those who were ‘playing it safe’.

Prediction market prices plotted on a chart can tell compelling tales of volatile shifts in sentiment as a result of information becoming more complete. In the above Steyer-Debate chart, one can see the various phases of this story. After falling to as low as 2c/share in the afternoon, the market began to adapt to changes in information. The initial stir began picking up steam at ~3:30pm, presumably influenced by insiders privy to the results of a Fox poll that would have surprising implications for Tom Steyer’s eligibility in the January Democratic debate.

The next wave and biggest candle forms at 4pm; as the poll is made public, the price for yes/qualification scaled from 10c/share to 80c/share in a matter of minutes. A frenzy of activity occurs between 4pm-5pm, and amidst the surprise and confusion the price is briefly bid down to nearly 40c/share before rallying all the way to a virtual certainty at 99c/share shortly after 5pm. That’s it, folks. Less than two hours of madness left many shocked, those that capitalized on the 4900% rise ecstatic, and those that were on the other side bewildered.

More examples of huge swings in recent political betting history:

Brexit, 2016
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Clinton/Trump, 2016
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Trump Impeachment, 2019
Image result for axios impeachment odds

A lot has changed since we last checked in on the DemNom market. Elizabeth Warren completed her plunge from pole sentiment position in the Fall to well behind the two current frontrunners, Sanders and Biden. Buttigieg, likewise, saw a reversal in the momentum he was establishing.

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The market is currently giving one of Biden or Sanders a 71% probability of winning the race. It remains to be seen whether these two will continue their separation from the field, if Mayor Pete or Warren have one last push, or if a long-shot can begin a swing like Steyer and the debate qualification market.


Coming soon in Q1 2020, Augur will be the only platform for political betting with no limits, the lowest fees, and unbeatable odds.

To receive updates on Augur including this newsletter, sign up below:


Around the Ecosystem


More on Augur

Augur.net

Augur v2: A Tour of the Prediction Protocol’s First Major Upgrade

The Ultimate Guide to Decentralized Prediction Markets

Augur Master Plan

Announcing the Augur v1 Cutoff

Augur v2 Transition Update


The Forecast Foundation has no role in the operation of markets, trades or actions created or performed on the Augur protocol, nor does it have the ability to censor, restrict, control, modify, change, revoke, terminate or make any changes to markets created on the Augur protocol. The Forecast Foundation has no more control over the Augur protocol than anyone else using Ethereum.

Thus, we do not seek to advise others on how to use the protocol. We encourage those in the community who are well educated on Augur to pay it forward and share their ideas for best practices, tips, fixes, etc with the larger community via TwitterDiscordRedditGithub, and other community channels. For more information regarding the role of the Forecast Foundation, check out the FAQ.

Augur Weekly - How to Get a Head Start in the Primary Markets

A Look at the Week in Political Betting, Augur News, and More


Augur Weekly posts are public. If someone you know might like this content, please share it!

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Election Betting Roundup


Happy New Year!

Today’s newsletter is a guest post by Millenerian (@ratflatblog), originally published on his blog, Rat Flat. Go give him a follow for the best in geographic visualizations of betting odds.


The past month has been kind to the candidacies of former Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Bernie Sanders, at least according to the gamblers on the political prediction website PredictIt.org. Last time I looked at PredictIt’s odds for the 2020 primaries and caucuses Mayor Pete Buttigieg led in Iowa and Senator Elizabeth Warren was favored in 3 North-East states. Since then both Buttigieg and Warren’s odds have dropped while Biden and Sanders’ odds have risen nearly across the board. As can be seen in the map below, Biden and Sanders now are favored in every state except Massachusetts, the home-state of Senator Elizabeth Warren. Note that several states with very late primaries do not yet have PredictIt.org markets set up yet, for example Montana which does not vote until June 2, 2020.

Joe Biden’s polling has been remarkably stable, and many political commentators felt he exceeded expectations in the last Democratic debate. Polls have shown him with solid support among black voters and working-class white voters, which may explain why his odds are above 60% in most southern states. Biden also shows strength in rust-belt states like Pennsylvania and Ohio, as well as South-Western states with large Latino populations such as Arizona and Nevada. His biggest vulnerability is his weak odds in the early voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire. He is only at 15% odds to win in each state, putting him behind both Sanders and Buttigieg. However, bettors seem to believe he can survive losses in these first two states, as he is a narrow favorite in Nevada, which is the third state to vote, and a heavy favorite in the final of the four early voting states, South Carolina.

Since November Biden has seen increases in his probability to win in every state except Vermont and Connecticut. Most promising for him are the signs of increasing strength in large, diverse, liberal states such as Illinois and New York, where he is now favored to win after being viewed as an under-dog to Sanders in November. More troubling for him is that his odds of winning have not increased much in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada, with only ~5% increases in those early states. Losing both Iowa and New Hamsphire and then sweeping to victory in later states would be a fairly unique path to the nomination, but the bettors have faith in Joe at this point in the game.

Senator Bernie Sanders has also had remarkably stable polling and very strong fundraising, having bounced back after the scare of his October heart attack. His strength is concentrated in three regions: the North-East, the Upper Midwest, and the Pacific/Rocky Mountain West. He is solidly favored in New Hampshire, is a slight favorite in Iowa, and closely trails Biden’s odds in Nevada. However, he has very low odds in South Carolina, and this extends throughout the rest of the Southern United States, with the exception of Oklahoma and Missouri where he is more competitive.

Since November Sanders’ odds have increased in all but five states. His biggest increases have been in his strongest regions, with large jumps in states he won in 2016 like Maine, Minnesota, and Utah. He has seen smaller gains in the South and Rust-Belt, and has seen his odds drop in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, and Pennsylvania. In these states increased confidence in Biden has eaten into Sanders’ odds. If he is going to win the nomination he will need to prove he can win in large diverse states, luckily for him he has gained ground in California, the largest prize in terms of delegates.

Mayor Pete Buttigieg still shows strength in the first state to vote, Iowa, but after that he is viewed as a long-shot in every state. PredictIt sees his best odds outside Iowa in New Hampshire, as well as other eastern states like Rhode Island, Maryland, and Ohio, along with a few western states such as Hawaii, Alaska, and Arizona. However, even in these states his odds rarely get very far above 10%. His weakest region is the South, where he is under 10% odds to win in every state but Florida.

In November Buttigieg was riding high, but since then his polling has dipped and he has come under withering attacks from rival campaigns. His odds have dropped across the board, but most damaging are his 10% drop in Iowa and New Hampshire, which has placed him firmly in second-place in those states behind Senator Sanders.

Senator Elizabeth Warren has seen her polling drop significantly since November, which has sapped her strength across the country in PredictIt markets. Her best areas are still the North-East and the West, but she is now below 15% odds in every state but her home-state of Massachusetts. Her weakest areas are in the South and the Rust Belt, where her strongest demographic, college-educated white voters, make up a smaller share of the Democratic primary electorate.

Warren’s odds have dropped in every state across the board, with the exception of Alaska where she saw a small increase. The biggest decreases have come in states with more liberal democratic primary electorates like Maine, Wisconsin, Colorado, and Washington. These are states that Bernie Sanders won in 2016, and her odds have dropped here while his have risen steeply.

So overall, according to PredictIt the shape of the 2020 Democratic Primary is increasingly looking like a head-to-head battle between Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders. Sanders is favored in the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire, but Biden is favored in Nevada and South Carolina along with the South, the Rust Belt, and big states like Illinois and New York. If PredictIt is right, this would suggest that Biden is the most likely nominee, unless Bernie can ride the momentum from those early states to win over diverse liberal states like New York and Illinois that he lost to Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Personally, my own view is that the race is more wide-open than what is suggested by PredictIt’s markets. Biden and Sanders have had stable polling, but neither have had a large surge in support as Warren and Buttigieg have faded. This suggests there are still many voters who are undecided, and could shift back to Warren or Buttigieg if they were to do well in the early states. Warren and Buttigieg still have strong fundraising, and supposedly have the strongest organizations in Iowa, which is particularly important as it is a caucus state.

My next update will be in late January of 2020, just before the Iowa caucuses. It will be very interesting to see if PredictIt still shows a battle between Biden and Sanders, or if the odds have shifted back towards other candidates.


As a reminder, come Q1 2020, Augur will be the only platform for political betting with no limits, the lowest fees, and unbeatable odds.

To receive updates on Augur including this newsletter, sign up below:

Further Reading:


Around the Ecosystem


More on Augur

Augur.net

Augur v2: A Tour of the Prediction Protocol’s First Major Upgrade

The Ultimate Guide to Decentralized Prediction Markets

Augur Master Plan

Announcing the Augur v1 Cutoff

Augur v2 Transition Update


The Forecast Foundation has no role in the operation of markets, trades or actions created or performed on the Augur protocol, nor does it have the ability to censor, restrict, control, modify, change, revoke, terminate or make any changes to markets created on the Augur protocol. The Forecast Foundation has no more control over the Augur protocol than anyone else using Ethereum.

Thus, we do not seek to advise others on how to use the protocol. We encourage those in the community who are well educated on Augur to pay it forward and share their ideas for best practices, tips, fixes, etc with the larger community via TwitterDiscordRedditGithub, and other community channels. For more information regarding the role of the Forecast Foundation, check out the FAQ.

Augur Weekly - Impeachment, Debate, and How to Double your Money

A Look at the Week in Political Betting, Augur News, and More


Augur Weekly posts are public. If someone you know might like this content, please share!

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Election Betting Roundup

Tis the season to roll up one’s sleeves, hunker down with one’s favorite political betting blogs, and get ready to profit.

The impeachment saga seems to be ending, or just beginning, depending on how you look at it. Those that bet on the 1st term and 2019 impeachment slept well this week after the House brought and approved two articles of impeachment against President Trump.

With the impeachment being a foregone conclusion, let’s shift to the odds of a Senate conviction. In contrast to the new highs in impeachment markets, conviction markets are still indicating quite the long shot for the removal of the president.

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In fact, impeachment and the surrounding drama have seemed to have spurred the support of Trump for re-election. As you can see below, the PredictIt price for shares in his re-election has been steadily rising amidst this process.


If you’ve been following our good friend Ben over at the Augur Edge, he’s been slinging hot predictions right out of the oven. In Tuesday’s Edge, he detailed his inclination to buy shares of Amy Klobuchar in the DemNom and GenElection markets:

I bought Klobuchar YES shares in the Demnom market at ~3 cents and in the General election market at ~2 cents…I don't think she's getting the nomination, but I think she will bounce in coming weeks.

Well, in a matter of days, not weeks, Klobuchar’s odds surged. Following Thursday’s DemDebate in Los Angeles, where she was widely hailed as having a strong performance, her odds of the nomination have reached .08/share (+167%) and the presidency, .04/share (+100%). Great pick Ben, in the spirit of Christmas, we hope you don’t stop gifting us these great tips. If you’re into things like prediction markets and profit, go give Augur Edge a follow!

Moreover, Ben goes into detail about the relative benefits of PredictIt vs Augur. He lays out a whole host of the advantages of Augur, including one that addresses a problem I’ve been seeing often:

On Twitter, you’ll find a graveyard of folk asking for markets that never materialize; whereas on Augur, one can simply make it themselves:


As a reminder, come Q1 2020, Augur will be the only platform for political betting with no limits, the lowest fees, and unbeatable odds.

To receive updates on Augur including this newsletter, sign up below:

Further Reading:


Around the Ecosystem


More on Augur

Augur.net

Augur v2: A Tour of the Prediction Protocol’s First Major Upgrade

The Ultimate Guide to Decentralized Prediction Markets

Augur Master Plan

Announcing the Augur v1 Cutoff

Augur v2 Transition Update


The Forecast Foundation has no role in the operation of markets, trades or actions created or performed on the Augur protocol, nor does it have the ability to censor, restrict, control, modify, change, revoke, terminate or make any changes to markets created on the Augur protocol. The Forecast Foundation has no more control over the Augur protocol than anyone else using Ethereum.

Thus, we do not seek to advise others on how to use the protocol. We encourage those in the community who are well educated on Augur to pay it forward and share their ideas for best practices, tips, fixes, etc with the larger community via TwitterDiscordRedditGithub, and other community channels. For more information regarding the role of the Forecast Foundation, check out the FAQ.

Augur Weekly - 3 Political Markets with Explosive Upside in 2020

A Look at the Week in Political Betting, Augur News, and More


Augur Weekly posts are public. If someone you know might like it, feel free to share!

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Holy cow. There won’t be a dull week in political betting for the next 12 months, will there?

Yesterday, the UK saw a Conservative majority and Boris Johnson take the Parliament and Prime Minister elections, respectively. The Guesser-created market for UK majority in Parliament became one of the largest in Augur’s early history, with over $200k in open interest.

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This result had implications for other contests, as the ‘Brexit by Feb 1st’ market on PredictIt made a strong move upwards upon the results. The market now prices the chance at .81/share, up from .56/share earlier in the week.

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Now, let’s take a look at some markets that are sure to have explosive upside in 2020.

One thing is for sure, the most profitable opportunities will be on platforms like Augur, where there are no limits on the amount bet in markets and the breadth of markets available.


1) DemNom.

Look, maybe we’re biased, but having covered the volatility in this market over the past few months, it’s not hard to see that there will be some serious opportunities to profit off of the rolling winds of sentiment for this cycle’s cast of characters.

So many questions remain. Will the establishment favorite, Biden, or fellow moderate, Pete Buttigieg, finally take the reins from here? Or will one of the progressive challengers; Sanders and Warren; garner the momentum necessary to capture the nomination?

Will overbought longshots with name recognition, like Clinton and Bloomberg, continue to create ample opportunity for profitable shorts?

And then there’s Yang. I mean, betting against Andrew Yang is essentially free money.

Any way you slice it, the best odds among any candidate are substantially long, with the favorite offering a near 300% return on a correct prediction.

Betting against Andrew Yang is essentially free money


2) Impeachment

In recent impeachment news, the House Judiciary Committee voted to advance two articles of impeachment accusing President Trump of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. DJT’s price of a first-term impeachment now stands at .93/share and the odds of it occurring in 2019 are similarly high, at .86/share.

Meanwhile, his odds of a senate conviction on the same charges continue to trend remarkably low. At fresh lows of .10/share, there is quite the upside for those who believe that there is more than a minuscule chance that a GOP-controlled Senate finds Trump guilty.


3) 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

Like the DemNom market, the Democratic nominee stands to see their odds in this market increase 2 or 3-fold upon their selection. What’s more, if one thinks the Democratic nominee will go on to win the election, they stand to make at least 4:1 (and as high as 10:1 for some popular candidates). Even at the very shortest odds amongst potential outcomes, betting on a Trump re-election would still net one greater than a 100% return upon victory.

The potential amount wagered on this contest is hard to fathom. As Augur contributor Ryan Berckmans puts it:

Looking at the precedents from previous elections paints an even grander picture. With Betfair serving primarily overseas customers and PredictIt’s trading limits, it’s not hard to see how Augur could capture much of the interest for this sure-to-be climactic election:


As a reminder, come Q1 2020, Augur will be the only platform for political betting with no limits, the lowest fees, and unbeatable odds.

To receive updates on Augur including this newsletter, sign up below:

Further Reading:


More on Augur

Augur.net

Augur v2: A Tour of the Prediction Protocol’s First Major Upgrade

The Ultimate Guide to Decentralized Prediction Markets

Augur Master Plan

Announcing the Augur v1 Cutoff

Augur v2 Transition Update


The Forecast Foundation has no role in the operation of markets, trades or actions created or performed on the Augur protocol, nor does it have the ability to censor, restrict, control, modify, change, revoke, terminate or make any changes to markets created on the Augur protocol. The Forecast Foundation has no more control over the Augur protocol than anyone else using Ethereum.

Thus, we do not seek to advise others on how to use the protocol. We encourage those in the community who are well educated on Augur to pay it forward and share their ideas for best practices, tips, fixes, etc with the larger community via TwitterDiscordRedditGithub, and other community channels. For more information regarding the role of the Forecast Foundation, check out the FAQ.


Cheers,

The Forecast Foundation OU

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