Augur Weekly - Election Betting Volatility Persists
A Look at the Week in Political Betting, Augur News, and More
Election Betting Roundup
Another week of volatile odds persisted in the political betting realm. As we should know by now, nothing about October-before-election-year odds is very telling. There continue to be many chances for profit-taking as prices fluctuate so violently.
Elizabeth Warren, who had seemed to be running away with public sentiment, saw her Democratic nomination odds drop precipitously this week from as high as .44/share to as low as .34/share, before rallying back to their present mark of .41/share. Warren’s odds troubles trickled over to the general election market, where she saw DJT take a sizeable lead of .41/share vs .21/share, before closing that divide to .12/share. Speaking of Trump, first term impeachment odds steadily climbed to new highs, now sitting at .76/share; although his odds of Senate conviction of impeachment in the same term remain long (0.21/share).
In other Dem nomination news, Joe Biden, who’s odds seemed to be in a downward spiral, saw a substantial boost. He closed the gap to within .11/share of Warren on Wednesday, before she put some distance between them again to end the week. Additionally, Pete Buttigieg’s odds followed up their strong showing during Dem Debate IV with another week of steady gains, currently sitting at .16/share; and Hillary Clinton’s odds spiked once again, doubling from .05 to .10 overnight on Wednesday, with further speculation that she’ll enter her hat at some point.
Unfortunately, due to limitations such as the betting cap on PredictIt, many argue that the prices of these markets are distorted.
Nate Silver @NateSilver538@gelliottmorris That's about 15 hours worth of gambling revenue on a single day on the Las Vegas Strip from slot machines alone. It's not much.
But, alas, there is good news for you politics junkies. A friendly reminder that come Q1 2020, Augur will be the best destination for political betting with no limits, unbeatable odds, the lowest fees, and the tightest spreads.
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Would You Bet Against Trump in 2020 - Bloomberg Opinion (By Tyler Cowen)
My New Gambling Addiction: Betting on the News - James Altucher
The Politics of Prediction - Innovations Journal
Betting on Ballots - Observer
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