Augur Weekly - Election Betting Volatility Persists

A Look at the Week in Political Betting, Augur News, and More

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Election Betting Roundup

Another week of volatile odds persisted in the political betting realm. As we should know by now, nothing about October-before-election-year odds is very telling. There continue to be many chances for profit-taking as prices fluctuate so violently.

Elizabeth Warren, who had seemed to be running away with public sentiment, saw her Democratic nomination odds drop precipitously this week from as high as .44/share to as low as .34/share, before rallying back to their present mark of .41/share. Warren’s odds troubles trickled over to the general election market, where she saw DJT take a sizeable lead of .41/share vs .21/share, before closing that divide to .12/share. Speaking of Trump, first term impeachment odds steadily climbed to new highs, now sitting at .76/share; although his odds of Senate conviction of impeachment in the same term remain long (0.21/share).

In other Dem nomination news, Joe Biden, who’s odds seemed to be in a downward spiral, saw a substantial boost. He closed the gap to within .11/share of Warren on Wednesday, before she put some distance between them again to end the week. Additionally, Pete Buttigieg’s odds followed up their strong showing during Dem Debate IV with another week of steady gains, currently sitting at .16/share; and Hillary Clinton’s odds spiked once again, doubling from .05 to .10 overnight on Wednesday, with further speculation that she’ll enter her hat at some point.

Unfortunately, due to limitations such as the betting cap on PredictIt, many argue that the prices of these markets are distorted.

Brett Richey @BrettRichey

@biancoresearch Predictit is not a reliable source of market sentiment due to the $850 betting limits & trading + withdrawal fees. Betfair is much more accurate, although they have their own issues as well. Check out @AugurProject - they have a ton of cool stuff coming in early 2020.

G. Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris

@PredictIt .@NateSilver538 Point taken. And in some ways I think the actual story is reverse of what I tweeted. In particular, given that trading volume in $ is so low, it doesn't take much to bias the markets, especially for a single contract... hint hint...

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris That's about 15 hours worth of gambling revenue on a single day on the Las Vegas Strip from slot machines alone. It's not much.

But, alas, there is good news for you politics junkies. A friendly reminder that come Q1 2020, Augur will be the best destination for political betting with no limits, unbeatable odds, the lowest fees, and the tightest spreads.

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Further Reading:

• Would You Bet Against Trump in 2020 - Bloomberg Opinion (By Tyler Cowen)

• We're Four Political Betting Experts. AMA - Reddit

• My New Gambling Addiction: Betting on the News - James Altucher

• U.K. Political Drama May Be Best Viewed Through Bookmakers - WSJ

• The Politics of Prediction - Innovations Journal

• Betting on Ballots - Observer

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Introducing STLD Exchange

This week an entity called Prediction Labs announced an instant settlement product for Augur markets, STLD.Exchange.

Come Augur v2, STLD will be providing instant-payout for winning shares. They will support a wide range of markets and will be broadcasting them ahead of time!

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Augur Metrics

Pre-Finalization Markets: 287

All-Time Finalized Markets: 2,475

Pre-Finalization Open Interest: $196,649.10 (1,175 ETH)

CASH Contract: $558,926.39 USD (3,266 ETH)

ETH Price: $167.49

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Hot Augur Markets

Provided by: Augur Digest

1. Will Justin Trudeau Be Re-Elected Prime Minister Of Canada In The 2019 Election?

   83 ETH | $13,529 | Dec 2, 2019

2. Will The UK Leave The European Union Before November 1st 2019?

   62 ETH| $10,384 | Nov 3, 2019

3. Will the FOMC establish the federal funds target rate range at 175-200 BPS in its meeting on October 2019?

   30 ETH | $4,881 | Nov 2, 2019

4. NBA: Will the Golden State Warriors defeat the Los Angeles Clippers?

   22 ETH | $3,652 | Oct 26, 2019

5. Will Donald Trump be Re-Elected in 2020?

   111 ETH | $17,958 | Dec 6, 2020

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Around the Ecosystem

• Coursera: Augur (Part 1) - University at Buffalo

• Coursera: Augur (Part 2) - University at Buffalo

• Boris Johnson's Brexit odds calculated by prediction tool Augur - Decrypt

• Prediction Labs to launch instant settlement service for Augur - The Block

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Augur Links

Augur.net

Augur v2: A Tour of the Prediction Protocol’s First Major Upgrade

The Ultimate Guide to Decentralized Prediction Markets

Augur Master Plan

Announcing the Augur v1 Cutoff

Augur v2 Transition Update

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Cheers,

The Forecast Foundation OU